Quick drought update
Lake Michie is still full, and Little River is within 5 inches of being full. Water use is down just about 16% year over year for the month of March. The city says that means we've got 318 days of "premium" water on hand in our two reservoirs. Remove the 2 million gallons a day we're currently getting from Jordan Lake via Cary, and that figure drops to about 289 days at March's usage. If we make the reasonable assumption that we can continue to use water at a rate 16% lower than last year, when consumption peaked at around 33 million gallons per day, the real number of days of "premium" water is closer to 240 or 250.
Still, a vast improvement over where we were in November and early December, when we approached a 30 or so day supply.
I was pleasantly surprised to see that reservoir levels did not drop during last week's "dry spell." Inflows were still at or near historic lows for most of the week, suggesting that ground water has not been replenished, but they were apparently high enough to meet demand.
All this could change if we have a summer and fall of no rain, as we did last year. That's why now is a good opportunity to be seriously thinking about long term policy changes to make in balancing our supply and demand for water. Word on the street is that the city is getting ready to make some big announcements regarding conservation measures. Let me just say, if you've purchased an ultra-high-efficiency toilet int he past couple of months, make sure you hang on to the receipt. And don't be surprised to see a lot more information and messaging coming from the city about the state of our water supply and the need to conserve.
The first of a two part forum on the drought sponsored by a grass roots group called Women for Wise Growth will be held at the main branch of the public library on Wednesday the 2nd, from 7 - 9 pm. Carrboro Mayor Mark Chilton, who has controversially called for Durham to tighten its development policy if it wants to maintain access to regional water supplies, is one of the speakers.
And another, as yet unnamed citizens' group, has been meeting and discussing via email a series of initiatives the city should be undertaking to raise awareness about the drought and to encourage reduced use of water as a matter of course and policy. Look for a document from those folks pretty soon.
My own thinking is that is that the Stage III or Stage IV restrictions we've been operting under for the past 6 months or so manage crises. They don't manage growth, or resources, or the city, for that matter. Crisis management is not a substitute for good planning. (In fact, if you're spending most of your time managing crises, it's a
pretty good sign that you haven't done good planning.)
The real question isn't (as Reyn Bowman over at Bull City Mutterings seems to think) whether the reservoirs are filled in April. It's whether they're filled in September. And next September. And the one after that.
Still, a vast improvement over where we were in November and early December, when we approached a 30 or so day supply.
I was pleasantly surprised to see that reservoir levels did not drop during last week's "dry spell." Inflows were still at or near historic lows for most of the week, suggesting that ground water has not been replenished, but they were apparently high enough to meet demand.
All this could change if we have a summer and fall of no rain, as we did last year. That's why now is a good opportunity to be seriously thinking about long term policy changes to make in balancing our supply and demand for water. Word on the street is that the city is getting ready to make some big announcements regarding conservation measures. Let me just say, if you've purchased an ultra-high-efficiency toilet int he past couple of months, make sure you hang on to the receipt. And don't be surprised to see a lot more information and messaging coming from the city about the state of our water supply and the need to conserve.
The first of a two part forum on the drought sponsored by a grass roots group called Women for Wise Growth will be held at the main branch of the public library on Wednesday the 2nd, from 7 - 9 pm. Carrboro Mayor Mark Chilton, who has controversially called for Durham to tighten its development policy if it wants to maintain access to regional water supplies, is one of the speakers.
And another, as yet unnamed citizens' group, has been meeting and discussing via email a series of initiatives the city should be undertaking to raise awareness about the drought and to encourage reduced use of water as a matter of course and policy. Look for a document from those folks pretty soon.
My own thinking is that is that the Stage III or Stage IV restrictions we've been operting under for the past 6 months or so manage crises. They don't manage growth, or resources, or the city, for that matter. Crisis management is not a substitute for good planning. (In fact, if you're spending most of your time managing crises, it's a
pretty good sign that you haven't done good planning.)
The real question isn't (as Reyn Bowman over at Bull City Mutterings seems to think) whether the reservoirs are filled in April. It's whether they're filled in September. And next September. And the one after that.
Labels: drought
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3 Comments:
Absolutely right, Barry. It's not so much about the wet months of March/April as it is about the sustainability of that supply over the dry months of summer/fall.
If too many people are pulling of the re-freshed Spring supply of water so that it's depleted by summer, it seems weird for people to be high-fiving in a wet April when what we are looking at (given past years) is a pending September depletion problem.
By
Durham Bull Pen, at 5:36 PM
If I were a bettin' man, I'd say we were about to have both reservoirs full tomorrow for the first time since last summer.
By
Unknown, at 11:38 PM
With water coming in to the Little River reservoir at 227 CFS, i'd say you were probably right.
By
Barry, at 12:15 AM
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