Memo to Barack Obama
I don't know if this qualifies as any special insight. I'm sure others have seen this as well. But i was realizing the other night that, at least since 1968, Republicans have run the same campaign when it comes to presidential elections. And you'd think that after 40 years, Democrats would wise up.
The campaign message is simple. "My opponent is a pussy." The facts, the policies, the image of the US in the world, the economy, none of that matters. Once a significant enough portion of the electorate has absorbed that message, Republicans win.
Republicans lost in 1976 simply because Nixon had tarnished the brand so deeply. Even with that, the election was quite close. Bill Clinton won in 1992 and again in 1996 because, well, having George H. W. Bush and Bob Dole calling you a pussy just doesn't resonate. But for the most part, that's been the campaign strategy, and it's worked extremely well.
John McCain and his surrogates have just spent the best part of the past month calling Barack Obama a pussy. And if the Obama campaign's response to that is going to be this, well, he's not going to do much to change people's minds. It's not about running an campaign "to be proud of," it's about winning the election. I'd rather have President-elect Obama wake up on November 5th and say, "well, maybe the campaign wasn't our proudest moment as a nation, given all the nasty things we've said about each other, but i'm ready to lead the country in a new direction," than have former candidate Obama giving his concession speech and thanking his volunteers for participating in a campaign they could be proud of. Seems to me i've seen enough of that the past few election cycles.
The campaign message is simple. "My opponent is a pussy." The facts, the policies, the image of the US in the world, the economy, none of that matters. Once a significant enough portion of the electorate has absorbed that message, Republicans win.
Republicans lost in 1976 simply because Nixon had tarnished the brand so deeply. Even with that, the election was quite close. Bill Clinton won in 1992 and again in 1996 because, well, having George H. W. Bush and Bob Dole calling you a pussy just doesn't resonate. But for the most part, that's been the campaign strategy, and it's worked extremely well.
John McCain and his surrogates have just spent the best part of the past month calling Barack Obama a pussy. And if the Obama campaign's response to that is going to be this, well, he's not going to do much to change people's minds. It's not about running an campaign "to be proud of," it's about winning the election. I'd rather have President-elect Obama wake up on November 5th and say, "well, maybe the campaign wasn't our proudest moment as a nation, given all the nasty things we've said about each other, but i'm ready to lead the country in a new direction," than have former candidate Obama giving his concession speech and thanking his volunteers for participating in a campaign they could be proud of. Seems to me i've seen enough of that the past few election cycles.
Labels: 2008 elections, Barack Obama, John McCain
Since 1949, Durhamites have slept soundly, secure in the knowledge that, in our town, erection can be depended upon. Now, thanks to the power of the internets, we can spread that security all over the world.
3 Comments:
I'll overlook the irony in being called a pussy by someone whose name is another slang word, and simply point out that it's hard to think of a wimpier Republican than Geo. HW circa 1992 (and this from someone who worked in his administration). Perhaps that's why he lost (esp. against Clinton's New Democrat strategy).
Well, that and the "read my lips" thing.
Agreed that Obama has to do more than cry sour grapes, however. He's showing his rookie stripes in this one.
I'd say that Obama should outflank McCain by bringing *all* of the troops home from everywhere besides Taiwan and N. Korea, and simply point out that we will win more hearts and minds with MTV and Disney than with bombs and torture, but he doesn't have the guts to take this stance.
The smart money is on McCain, but it will be close, and if Bob Barr costs him Nevada it could go either way. Doesn't much matter to me -- I may end up voting for Nader.
I think we're seeing the stock market price in the election results and resulting tax increase by either candidate. I'd avoid drug and oil stocks, and invest in consumer staples (e.g., Kraft, Nestle, Philip Morris) and any company that earns foreign currency.
By
KeepDurhamDifferent!, at 4:49 PM
Part of the issue is that this strategy and going negative in general tends to turn off voters. This favors the incumbents and better funded candidates, as they can then focus more on getting their base out rather than trying to convert the undecided. And my guess is that going negative turns off liberal voters more than conservative voters, just based on their personal values.
For a very well-thought-out version of this idea, plus insight into McCain's last run at the white house, check out David Foster Wallace's book McCain's Promise, which is also included as the essay "Up, Simba" in his collection Consider the Lobster. It got me to recognize that my youthful "protest" vote of not voting for either candidate was in fact a vote for the establishment, as well as intellectual (and physical) laziness.
Obama is in a tough situation in that not fighting back is seen as a sign of weakness, yet fighting back by going negative is not only liable to open him up to criticism of a campaign he "can't be proud of" but also liable to turn off the swing and youth voters that he's counting on.
By
Jeff Stern, at 5:44 PM
Jeff - John Kerry lost the 2004 election when he let a bunch of morons, most of whom have never been in the military, mock his service and heroism by wearing a bunch of "purple heart bandaids" at the Republican convention without blowing a gasket. He took the high road. And enough people reacted to that by saying "hey, naybe he really is a pussy," and voting for George Bush because they believed he'd stand up and fight for what he thought was right.
Obama doesn't have to get totally in the gutter to do this. But his response to the "tire gauge" deal has been pretty weak so far. And if he doesn't have a campaign commercial up in 24 hours featuring John McCain saying he'd like to see his wife flashing her tits to 30,000 bikers in Sturgis, he's a fool.
By
Barry, at 6:22 PM
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