Fire
I lived in this neighborhood for about 8 months in 1986.
Governator Schwarzenegger recently declared a drought emergency in California, after rainfall for the three months ending in May was lower than ever recorded for that period.
Hopefully, we've gotten enough rain in the early part of this year here, that urban fires are not a big threat in Durham. But if the summer is like last year, i wouldn't bet on it.
UPDATE: Fire threats and water shortages tend to go hand in hand, but they're not always in sync. Currently, both Lake Michie and Little River reservoirs have dropped below "full" for the first time since March. Water usage was above 27 mgd yesterday for the 6th day in a row, meaning consumption is 18% less than last year at this time. Not bad, but for a while there in May we were closing in on a 30% reduction in use. Inflows have also dropped to about 11 mgd. Again, that's better than last year, or 2002, when they were virtually non-existent, but not enough to sustain us. Premium water supplies are listed at 250 days, but that's calculated on a 30 day moving average of demand. Calculate that supply based on yesterday's demand, and we're back to a 6 month supply in the reservoirs. That's why it's important to keep conservation measures in place. Our chances for rain don't get above 40% for the next 10 days or so, and even those are only scattered thunderstorms.
A wind-whipped grass fire raged out of control Tuesday along Interstate 5 in north Stockton, torching dozens of homes, displacing more than 30 families and causing untold millions of dollars worth of damage before it was extinguished.
The blaze is believed to be the largest residential fire in the city's history.
The rapidly escalating blaze threw neighborhoods into chaos, as anxious residents doused homes with garden hoses, rescued pets and frantically searched for family and friends.
Governator Schwarzenegger recently declared a drought emergency in California, after rainfall for the three months ending in May was lower than ever recorded for that period.
Hopefully, we've gotten enough rain in the early part of this year here, that urban fires are not a big threat in Durham. But if the summer is like last year, i wouldn't bet on it.
UPDATE: Fire threats and water shortages tend to go hand in hand, but they're not always in sync. Currently, both Lake Michie and Little River reservoirs have dropped below "full" for the first time since March. Water usage was above 27 mgd yesterday for the 6th day in a row, meaning consumption is 18% less than last year at this time. Not bad, but for a while there in May we were closing in on a 30% reduction in use. Inflows have also dropped to about 11 mgd. Again, that's better than last year, or 2002, when they were virtually non-existent, but not enough to sustain us. Premium water supplies are listed at 250 days, but that's calculated on a 30 day moving average of demand. Calculate that supply based on yesterday's demand, and we're back to a 6 month supply in the reservoirs. That's why it's important to keep conservation measures in place. Our chances for rain don't get above 40% for the next 10 days or so, and even those are only scattered thunderstorms.
Labels: weather
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9 Comments:
The smoke out today is reportedly due to the wildfires down east. Fortunately, those fires are both in extremely sparsely populated areas, and also in areas where a good raging fire is about the best thing that could happen ecologically. (It could mean some natural expansion of longleaf pine savannas, which have collapsed across the southeastern coastal plains due to fire suppression.)
Not good for the few people whose houses happen to be in the way, but better a couple hundred than a hundred thousand.
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Unknown, at 12:47 PM
Yep, fire is part of the natural order of things in many places, and building in those places is, in the long run, not too wise.
I'm not sure Durham fits into that category, though, but i wonder if we could end up dealing with something like the Oakland fires of 1991 with another dry summer?
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Barry, at 1:16 PM
The area around Durham has historically been much less prone to fires, as has most of the piedmont. That could, of course, change somewhat with climate change, but I wouldn't anticipate it.
That's not to say another superdry summer couldn't make things really bad, but just that down east, fires used to burn in wet years as well as dry years. This one probably got out just because it was that much drier down there.
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Unknown, at 3:55 PM
What i'm reading about the down east fire is that it's a peat fire at this point, and there's nothing to be done except let it smolder until the next tropical storm.
what i'm concerned about in Durham is a house fire that spreads to become a block fire if conditions stay dry through the summer. September/October especially. Earlier this year, in March, maybe, i helped put out a fire at Honey's that was spreading through the mulch in the parking lot. It was probably about 5-10 minutes away from becoming large enough to have to call the fire department.
The Oakland fires in 91 were spread by the presence of lots of eucalyptus, which smells great, but contains a highly flammable oil. The trees essentially exploded when they caught fire. Don't know if any of our trees here are similarly equipped. Just something to keep in the back of your mind.
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Barry, at 4:14 PM
Another issue in the Oakland fire is that it was in a neighborhood of winding, narrow streets, which made it hard for people to get out or emergency vehicles to get in. Plus, a normal autumn in Oakland means the Diablo winds blowing hot, dry air from inland over a landscape that hasn't seen rain for 4-5 months. A trend towards attractive wood shake roofs didn't help: houses with wood shake roofs burned to the ground, while neighbors' homes with mediterranean-style tile roofs stayed standing.
The scariest thing I ever saw on TV was a shot from that fire: a police officer telling a crying woman in her car, stuff in traffic: "Get out and RUN! Run for your life!"
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Anonymous, at 8:37 AM
Eucalyptus trees are famous for bursting into flames like that -- I'm not sure there's another tree in the world that does the same thing.
The longleaf pines are probably the closest thing, as they put a lot of pitch into their leaves, which encourages ground fires. At the same time, the trees themselves, owing to a very thick bark and the long needles themselves, are very resistant to fire, so that understory burns weed out hardwoods and brush, but leave the pines standing. Fires very rarely "top out" around them.
And all of this is irrelevant around Durham, as the closest meaningful stands of longleaf pines (aside from a few in botanical gardens here and there) are down in Moore County. The biggest tree-related fire worry we have here is standing deadwood, and that's not likely to be a problem in an urban neighborhood. In town, the biggest threat we have is probably abandoned houses. And really, that's not a terribly big one, nor is it all that related to rainfall.
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Unknown, at 9:32 AM
I have this really bigass, like 80 feet tall, conifer in my front yard that i can never remember what it's called. I'm pretty sure it's exotic. It drops a lot of very dry, pointy needled branches throughout the year that pile up around the base. I'm often slack about raking them up because they're dusty, sharp, and unpleasant to work with. They also don't compost too well. But they burn pretty easy, so you can be sure i won't be leaving any around the base of the tree this summer.
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Barry, at 9:39 AM
Cunninghamia lanceolata?
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MK, at 8:40 PM
A strong possibility. Thanks.
By
Barry, at 10:19 PM
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