Understanding the Durham PAC endorsements
All three of the major Political Action Committees in town (Friends of Durham, Durham Peoples' Alliance, Durham Committee on the Affairs of Black People) have made their endorsements public. There are three key local races - the at-large, non-partisan seat for Durham School; Durham District Attorney, and Durham Board of County Commissioners, where ten candidates are vying for five seats.
The math is a little complex, especially in regard to the Commissioners race. For the School Board, with three candidates, and the DA, with four, if the leading votegetter has a substantial plurality, generally defined as 40% or more, they win. If none of the candidates has 40%, there will be a runoff election in June. As i've noted in the past, there are no Republican candidates for DA (or for BOCC, for that matter) so whoever wins the Democratic primary will be essentially unopposed on the November ballot.
Kevin's done some of the heavy lifting in analyzing the impact of endorsements on the BOCC race, using what i call the Frank Hyman Theory of Durham Politics. Basically, Frank says you need endorsements from two of the three PACs to win. By that logic, the three incumbent commissioners (Heron, Page, and Reckhow) and newcomer Don Moffitt are in, while the fifth seat will be a scrap between Josh Parker (Friends), Brenda Howerton (PA), Fred Foster (DCABP), and former Commissioner Joe Bowser (DBACP). Tracey Cline (PA and DCABP) should win the DA position. Leigh Bordley (Friends, PA) is in the driver's seat for the at-large School Board position.
Here's the wild card in all this, however. Voter registration, at a little over 150,000 as of March 31, is not quite at an all-time high (it topped 164,000 in the 2000 general election), but turnout is expected to exceed 60%, and possibly reach 65%. Those are staggering numbers for a primary election, and pretty impressive for a general election as well. The assumption that i'm making (and i don't think i'm alone in this) is that a lot of people are preparing to vote in the Democratic presidential primary, where North Carolina matters for the first time in, well, probably forever. As far as the downticket races go, a lot of those folks, especially the newly registered, are what people in the trade call low-information voters. I think it's a mistake to assume that this election will automatically play out the same as previous elections. The local races aren't getting a lot of media play. The Herald-Sun is running a series of brief candidate profiles, but that's probably not enough to familiarize voters with everyone running. I think the local elections especially are going to be unpredictable this year, except maybe for Michael Page, who was endorsed by all three PACs, retaining his seat on the Commission.
By the way, if you didn't register before last Friday's deadline, you're not completely shut out of the system. You can still take advantage of North Carolina's modified same-day registration. Beginning Thursday, April 17, and continuing up through Saturday, May 3, you can register and vote at the Board of Elections Office at 706 W. Corporation St. Call 560-0700 for details.
I'll post who i'm voting for, and why, later on in the month. And i'll try to post information about as many candidates as i can between now and election day (May 6), but hey, i'm just a guy with a blog. This democracy thing is hard work, so go inform yourselves on who's running, and what they say they'll do if they're elected.
The math is a little complex, especially in regard to the Commissioners race. For the School Board, with three candidates, and the DA, with four, if the leading votegetter has a substantial plurality, generally defined as 40% or more, they win. If none of the candidates has 40%, there will be a runoff election in June. As i've noted in the past, there are no Republican candidates for DA (or for BOCC, for that matter) so whoever wins the Democratic primary will be essentially unopposed on the November ballot.
Kevin's done some of the heavy lifting in analyzing the impact of endorsements on the BOCC race, using what i call the Frank Hyman Theory of Durham Politics. Basically, Frank says you need endorsements from two of the three PACs to win. By that logic, the three incumbent commissioners (Heron, Page, and Reckhow) and newcomer Don Moffitt are in, while the fifth seat will be a scrap between Josh Parker (Friends), Brenda Howerton (PA), Fred Foster (DCABP), and former Commissioner Joe Bowser (DBACP). Tracey Cline (PA and DCABP) should win the DA position. Leigh Bordley (Friends, PA) is in the driver's seat for the at-large School Board position.
Here's the wild card in all this, however. Voter registration, at a little over 150,000 as of March 31, is not quite at an all-time high (it topped 164,000 in the 2000 general election), but turnout is expected to exceed 60%, and possibly reach 65%. Those are staggering numbers for a primary election, and pretty impressive for a general election as well. The assumption that i'm making (and i don't think i'm alone in this) is that a lot of people are preparing to vote in the Democratic presidential primary, where North Carolina matters for the first time in, well, probably forever. As far as the downticket races go, a lot of those folks, especially the newly registered, are what people in the trade call low-information voters. I think it's a mistake to assume that this election will automatically play out the same as previous elections. The local races aren't getting a lot of media play. The Herald-Sun is running a series of brief candidate profiles, but that's probably not enough to familiarize voters with everyone running. I think the local elections especially are going to be unpredictable this year, except maybe for Michael Page, who was endorsed by all three PACs, retaining his seat on the Commission.
By the way, if you didn't register before last Friday's deadline, you're not completely shut out of the system. You can still take advantage of North Carolina's modified same-day registration. Beginning Thursday, April 17, and continuing up through Saturday, May 3, you can register and vote at the Board of Elections Office at 706 W. Corporation St. Call 560-0700 for details.
I'll post who i'm voting for, and why, later on in the month. And i'll try to post information about as many candidates as i can between now and election day (May 6), but hey, i'm just a guy with a blog. This democracy thing is hard work, so go inform yourselves on who's running, and what they say they'll do if they're elected.
Labels: 2008 elections
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17 Comments:
The assumption that i'm making (and i don't think i'm alone in this) is that a lot of people are preparing to vote in the Democratic presidential primary... As far as the downticket races go, a lot of those folks, especially the newly registered, are what people in the trade call low-information voters.
Well as a very recently-registered NC voter, I'd say that's pretty much spot on.
I will try to make an informed choice or two between now and May 6, but if I don't have an honest preference in a race (and it happens a lot if you move around a lot) I just skip it.
But I suppose not everyone does that, which is a little scary...
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Brian, at 2:49 PM
I cannot believe that they good people of Durham can't scare up a Republican candidate. Sacrificial they may be, but running unopposed in November? What a waste of the political process....
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Unknown, at 3:00 PM
Hi Barry,
I agree with the low-information voter likelihood. The interesting thing here becomes the fact that I'd assume LIVs typically vote party when they don't have enough info. But LIVs within a single party? That's tough.
I suspect that we'll see one of three things happen:
1) The PACs miraculously raise funds for a massive voter education campaign with new voters between now and May. Not likely, I think. They'll reach out to their existing base, but I doubt they'll be able to reach the new folks.
2) LIVs don't vote for BOCC. I think this is most likely.
3) LIVs vote alphabetically. Now that's an interesting if scary thought...
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Unknown, at 3:04 PM
A lot of it will depend, i think, on exactly who the low-info voters turn out to be.
If brian, above, represents a majority of low-info voters who end up not voting for any BOCC canddates (or maybe Michael Page, who's been endorsed by everyone), then we will probably see a conventional result, with the 5th seat ending up being contested as described in the post.
If we have a very high turnout among newly registered Democrats in African-American precincts where the Committee's endorsements carry a lot of weight, i wouldn't be surprised to see Joe Bowser and/or Fred Foster end up on the BOCC. I'm just thankful that Ms. Peterson was not endorsed.
One of the wild cards in the BOCC race will be unaffiliateds. Will they decide to vote in the Democratic primary, where all the action is, or the Republican primary, where there's a pretty close and ideologically pitched race for the gubernatorial nomination?
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Barry, at 3:17 PM
Barry: That's the scenario I'd initially been worried about. But on the flip side, if these are voters who've never been motivated to vote before, can the DCABP effectively reach them? Does the Committee resonate with them?
I believe it probably _does_ resonate with a lot of registered-but-low-turnout voters; their appearance at the polls should boost the Committee's slate.
But I suspect if there were folks aware of and moved by the Committee's recommendations in the past, those folks would have already registered to vote before this election, if that makes sense.
There's a higher level of psychosocial commitment to align yourself with a PAC than to register to vote, particularly. (Of course, this may not apply if churches become an intermediary for the message.)
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Unknown, at 5:16 PM
Isn't there a free weekly around here that could help with voter education?
I forget the name of it.
On the other hand (no, that other hand, not this one), I tend to not vote in races I know nothing about (like Commissioner of Soils or something like that). I also refuse to vote for people who run unopposed, unless of course, it's a pal.
As for the lack of Republicanism in this town, I can't offer any apologies. We just haven't built enough cul-de-sacs I guess. (Honestly, Jeffrey, George W. Bush is a Republican president. Might wanna lay low for a while, knowuttimean?)
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Tony, at 7:31 PM
I think the race that will yield the most insight into influences will be the school board at-large race. PA and Friends have endorsed one candidate (Bordsley) who has never held office before, the Committee has endorsed another (Alston) who has twice run for mayor but never received more than 10% or so of the vote.
Unfortunately, this race is so far downticket that there won't be any polling on it, and the results will come in too late to have any predictive value.
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Barry, at 9:19 AM
Tony,
I don't think cul-de sacs are the definition. Please don't associate all Republicans with the current president. I happened to have lived in Durham and actually did run for office as a Republican. I didn't win, after all it is Durham, but at least it was not a one party race. That is not the way politics in America is supposed to work. That is why Durham never moves forward politically. The same "committee approved" candidates are run out every election cycle. The voters of Durham have no choice in their candidates, you are deluding yourself if you think you do. Sorry about the laying low, I don't have that ability.
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Unknown, at 9:34 AM
Jeffery - Durham has had Republicans in office in recent history. I really expected that someone would want to seek the DA's office, given the anger that some websites exploit on a daily basis that are the remnants of the lacrosse case. Instead, the winner of the Democratic primary is going to be the new Durham DA.
I guess most of those folks would rather bitch than work for change.
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Barry, at 9:51 AM
Th eproblem with Web sites venting their anger over any issue is that it really doesn't reflect Durham as a whole. You have one of the better blogs in Durham (and I see a lot of them) but do you think that you can influence voters? Or maybe influence someone to run for office based on your observations? How much influence do you think other Durham Websites have on that process? Lots of folks read these sites. But not the right people, the majority of voters will vote for who they are told to vote for. The force (committee) is strong in this town.
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Unknown, at 10:46 AM
I don't delude myself that i have any influence over politics in this town, although i appreciate your kind words.
don't overestimate the Committee's influence. Outside of helping Farad Ali win a seat on Council last fall, their record in the past few elections has been less than stellar. Ali had a tremendous amount of support among white progressives as well, that was independent of the Committee's endorsement.
I was referring to the vitriol that surface in the HS comments, on websites like LieStoppers, and occasionally in the comments here. I have a healthy appreciation for anger and righteous indignation. But in order for it to mean anything, it has to be channeled into useful avenues.
If you really think, for instance, that the DA's office in Durham is completely fucked up, shouldn't you be working on unfucking it? At the very least, shouldn't your party be offering a candidate? Unless what you'd really rather do is continue to throw rocks.
(and by "you" i don't necessarily mean Jeffery, but rather that apparently large group of people who continue to rail about The Worst Miscarriage of Justice in the History of the World™)
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Barry, at 11:06 AM
Barry,
I am sorry. I did not mean to sound like a rock thrower. I moved from Durham 6 years ago (gosh that seems like a long time) and now live in Southern Wake County. Believe me, if I still lived there I would be having my hand in it instead of just looking. I really enjoy your insight, I always have especially when we were neighbors. I have never commented before, but Durham politics just gets me going every time. I just hope that one day ya'll can get to the true two party system instead of the three PAC system.
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Unknown, at 11:18 AM
The thing about the three PAC system isn't that they somehow control tens of thousands of voters out there. If I remember the analysis that the Indy did a few years back, the DCABP could generally count on roughly 5,000 votes under any circumstances (I think this has dwindled significantly under Lavonia), with the FoD pulling like 4,500, and the combo of the PA and the Indy endorsements, which are hard to tease apart, bringing in like 4,000. In an election where over 100,000 votes may be cast, that doesn't seem like much.
The problem is that in most cases, unless there's a lot of news coverage of a race for some particular reason, or there's a well known name on the ballot, everything outside of the PACs tends to be a lot of noise. Either people do as Brian does, and don't vote, or they do their best with the candidate profiles, all of which start to sound the same after a while, or they grab an endorsements list and vote it.
Add to the fact that some of the voters that don't normally vote are reliable PAC voters as well, and even in an election with 120,000 voters casting ballots, two of the PACs will give you a 10-15k vote advantage that your opponents don't have. And in the absence of any other organizing factor in the electorate, that's almost always enough to carry the day.
I've said it before, but there's really a huge amount of room in Durham politics for someone to take over. Hell, the GOP is just sitting there doing nothing, ready for someone to actually organize it. If you do nothing but get a group of 2,000 or so of your closest friends, and get them all to vote regularly and vote the same way, you can be come an instant kingmaker. But if all you do is show up at the polls and vote without any outside interaction, you're basically noise.
Which, I admit, is what I'm drifting towards these days. I'm certainly not going to join up with the Friends or the Committee for the Personal Vendettas of Lavonia Allison, but just the same, with every year, PA just seems more and more, I don't know, ossified. Every time I gin up my dander to get involved with them, I see something stupid come out of their press releases, and it's just deflating. I'll probably be voting with them this year, but man, it really is time to stir up some new political institutions in this town.
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Unknown, at 3:03 PM
The problem with the GOP in Durham, at least when I lived there, was the apathy that pretty much ran rampant through the local party. I haven't seen much change in that over the years as the old leadership managed to undermine much of the ambitions of the folks who truly wanted change. Heck, I ran for City Council and never once was contacted by the party. It is exceedingly hard to win an election under most circumstances, never mind that your own party doesn't take an active role. When I did contact them about support early on, they just shrugged and said good luck with that.
I agree that if you can get enough voter base, you can do a world of good. I think the people of Durham would welcome a fresh set of ideas, you just have to make your ideas believable and workable. That is hard in the current atmosphere surrounding Durham politics.
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Unknown, at 4:04 PM
Jeffrey--
I voted for Tennyson for mayor, wasn't he a Republican?
I think it's easy to argue that Durham Republicans are either under-manned or lack the fire needed to get involved. Of course that doesn't stop them from throwing spitballs.
If the national GOP was less beholden to its "base" of gun-toting, science-hating, bible-thumping know-nothings, you'd be surprised at who might consider joining.
I'm just down on the party right now because we've had Bush, who should be an embarrassment not only to Republicans but to the MSM and chicken-shit Democrats (I won't mention any by name, since one of them is running for President) who enabled him enough to stay in there.
But honestly, I do associate people who enjoy economic prosperity with some forms of Republicanism. You'd have to be naive not to. Just look at North Raleigh or Cary or Charlotte. Hence the cul-de-sac crack.
Durham's system of PACs is actually envied by some folks elsewhere. They think it's more grass-rootsy. Interesting to hear an opposite take on it.
T
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Tony, at 10:42 PM
i live on a cul-de-sac.
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Barry, at 10:59 PM
It’s hard to find knowledgeable people on this topic, but you sound like you know what you’re talking about! Thanks for sharing this with others...
Driving Lessons Durham
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Unknown, at 11:22 PM
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