Dependable Erection

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Election Day predictions

Or hopes?

Presidential popular vote: Obama 57 - McCain 42 - Other 1

Electoral College: McCain wins Idaho, Utah, Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wyoming, Alaska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia. Total - 135 EVs

Obama wins the rest - 403 EVs

Senate - Democrats end up with 58 seats (Pickups in Minnesota, North Carolina, Georgia, Alaska, Oregon, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia.) With Sanders and Lieberman, that makes 60. Lieberman gets dumped from the Democratic caucus and loses his committee chairmanship anyway.

House - Democrats 260 seats, Republicans 175 seats

NC Senate - Hagan
NC Governor - McCrory
NC Council of State - Democratic sweep (I'm gonna miss Cherie K. Berry!)

Local - 4th district - David Price
8th District - Larry Kissell

Prepared meals tax - defeated



  • i hope obama wins NC.

    By Blogger Libby, at 7:30 AM  

  • So I guess McCrory is your upset pick? I just don't see it (and not because the polls pick Perdue). He seems to be drawing support almost exclusively from Charlotte, extreme western and eastern NC. He's going down.

    The nail-biter for me is whether Munger gets 2%, saving the Green and Libertarian parties from another lawsuit.

    By Blogger KeepDurhamDifferent!, at 9:54 AM  

  • I have an odd feeling about the prepared foods tax. I actually think it's going to win. I'm not sure I could put this into words, other than that the primary opposition to it was through the Durham Committee, and I actually think a lot of the Committee's volunteer force got absorbed into the Obama campaign. When I did poll greeting two weeks ago at the East Branch Library, which is generally deep DCABP territory (I'd say 80% of the voters that walked by were black), almost none of them had received endorsement cards, and most were unfamiliar with the food tax. (I encouraged a "For" vote, so there's something...)

    In general, the proponents have seemed a little better organized than the opponents. And in this election, getting any brain space for a ballot initiative is next to impossible.

    By Blogger Michael Bacon, at 3:23 PM  

  • I'm guessing you don't listen to Hot 97 or 102 Jamz, where the "no food tax" ads are running nonstop. If you're like me, you listen to NPR 24/7 except during the pledge drive (and the morning show on WKNC).

    Even the sponsor of the food tax vote (my opponent Floyd McKissick) has said it will fail. Why do you think Bill Bell has said he's going to ram the next tax hike down our throats without a vote?

    Good point about the food tax boosters being diverted by Obama and other races, however. In an off year they could have marshalled their forces better.

    By Blogger KeepDurhamDifferent!, at 3:59 PM  

  • Damn, I blew chunks on that prediction.

    By Blogger Michael Bacon, at 2:18 AM  

  • Oh, and Rollins -- I'm pretty much stuck on college radio, WNCU, WCPE, and a couple of the commercial stations. I'm pretty over NPR.

    By Blogger Michael Bacon, at 2:19 AM  

  • As annoying as NPR on WUNC can be, you shouldn't knock WNCU. During the recent pledge drive I went to 90.7 for the excellent "Democracy Now" show and heard an hour long debate between Nader and McKinney.

    I wish WXDU hadn't lost their translator back in the 90s; reception still sucks in Durham.

    I knew the food tax would lose, but not by THAT much. Wow.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:40 AM  

  • I'm surprised to see that Labor and Agriculture stayed in Republican hands last night. I so wanted to write a post called "Cherie K. Berry is going down."

    By Blogger Barry, at 8:10 AM  

  • Who's knocking WNCU? Democracy Now is the best national radio news program going.

    By Blogger Michael Bacon, at 10:21 AM  

  • Sorry, I misinterpreted your statement that you were over NPR (NCU carries "News & Notes" and a lot of other NPR progras). I guess most people think NPR = WUNC (especially white people).

    WNCU is one of the few stations that gets BETTER during the pledge drive, due to their low-key fundraising tactics and their heavy rotation of the old-school Dixieland jazz that I love best. I recall getting a whole hour of Jelly Roll Morton & King Louie this fall.

    By Blogger Allison Kort, at 11:08 AM  

  • It'll be interesting to see what effect the recent management changes at NCU have on programming there.

    I'm also hopeful that the tentative baby steps that XDU is taking towards increasing public affairs programming (not only the show that Kevin and i host, but also El Kilombo, Durham Noise Network, and a couple of others) will be supported in the coming semesters.

    By Blogger Barry, at 11:14 AM  

  • Not to belabor the point, but I generally turn off WNCU when the NPR stuff comes on. I'm not really anti-NPR, I just don't fine most of it that interesting anymore. (Car Talk is still as entertaining as ever, and I do enjoy Wait Wait Don't Tell Me when I catch it, but I could leave the rest.

    By Blogger Michael Bacon, at 3:56 PM  

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