Ruh-roh

A draft report by American intelligence agencies concludes that Afghanistan is in a “downward spiral” and casts serious doubt on the ability of the Afghan government to stem the rise in the Taliban’s influence there, according to American officials familiar with the document.

The classified report finds that the breakdown in central authority in Afghanistan has been accelerated by rampant corruption within the government of President Hamid Karzai and by an increase in violence by militants who have launched increasingly sophisticated attacks from havens in Pakistan.

The report, a nearly completed version of a National Intelligence Estimate, is set to be finished after the November elections and will be the most comprehensive American assessment in years on the situation in Afghanistan. Its conclusions represent a harsh verdict on decision-making in the Bush administration, which in the months after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks made Afghanistan the central focus of a global campaign against terrorism.

In case the words aren't clear enough, here's the picture.

You can talk about the surge until the cows come home, but here's the real problem. We've spent $650 billion fighting an unnecessary war in Iraq the past 5 years. That's money we could have probably used for a few other things. And at the end of the day, Afghanistan is going to be as much of a failed state as it was in 2001. Whether the surge worked or not is pretty much irrelevant.