Rasmussen: Obama up 2 in NC
Holy moly!
Barack Obama has a two-point advantage over John McCain in the traditionally Republican state of North Carolina.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Tar Heel State shows Obama attracting 49% of the vote while McCain earns 47%. A week ago, McCain held a three-point edge. This is the first time in eight Rasmussen Reports polls that Obama has held any kind of a lead in North Carolina, though the candidates were tied once as well.
The candidates have now been within three points of each other in six of the last seven polls. The sole exception came in August when McCain held a four-point advantage. Nationally, the race between Obama and McCain remains close in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
Labels: 2008 elections
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4 Comments:
Holy crap!
By
Vera, at 12:32 PM
This is great news, but I'd caution against reading too much into it. If NC is going for Obama, there's a whole lot of other states that will have gone blue first.
Which is not to say that your vote doesn't matter.
By
Anonymous, at 2:00 PM
The "Bradley Effect" discussed here: http://www.nybooks.com/articles/21771? describes how poll numbers for black candidates tend to be, on average, 7% higher than the actual tallied vote. He cites a number of possible reasons for this, including a reluctance among conservatives to participate in polls, people lying outright or changing their minds at the last minute.
By
Anonymous, at 4:21 PM
The Bradley Effect is extremely overrated, according to Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com.
If anything, in North Carolina, there's evidence of a "reverse Bradley Effect," as Obama drastically outperformed polls in the primary here.
The Bradley Effect assuredly existed in the past, particularly in the 1990 Senate race (a more heartbreaking election I can't remember), but it just doesn't appear to exist any more.
By
Unknown, at 9:17 PM
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