Thinking out loud about census numbers

How'd you like to live in Dallas-Fort Worth, which added a whopping 162,000 new residents to the MSA between July 2006, and July 2007, according the Census Bureau.

In North Carolina, Charlotte added almost 67,000 new residents in that span, topping the state's list numerically, while Raleigh/Cary grew at an astounding 4.7%, putting it on track to double in size again in only about 15 and a half years. The Durham MSA, which included Orange and Chatham counties, added a little over 10,000 new residents, for a 2.2% growth rate. As of 7/1/2007, we were at 479,000 people. No breakdown as to where in the MSA those folks moved, but south Durham and north Chatham are the most likely candidates.

Those kinds of growth rates (Charlotte's was 4.2%), recorded before the worst effects of the 2007 drought were felt, should have planners in the Southeast reaching for the Maalox. Atlanta, for example, added over 150,000 residents during that period, a 2.9% growth rate. And, like Durham, Atlanta's water supply dropped to less than 60 days late last fall.

Here's an interesting find via Google:

It's been two years since Georgia, Alabama and Florida ended rancorous high-level negotiations over how to divvy up the Chattahoochee River, metro Atlanta's primary water source.

Since then, drenching rainfall has washed memories of the searing drought of 1998 to 2002 off the front page and out of the public's mind.

The U.S. Supreme Court hasn't capped growth in metro Atlanta, as some feared, and water still flows when we turn on our faucets. The lawsuits that broke out when the talks broke down are mostly yawners, highlighted by nicely dressed attorneys making convoluted arguments in wood-paneled courtrooms. All the while, thousands of new homes and businesses are tapping into water mains across the region.

But scientists and state officials say this is exactly the time when the region should prepare for the next drought. Doing nothing will spell disaster. As metro Atlanta's population doubles in the next 25 years, rising demand and a static supply would equal a serious water shortfall.

According to the Metropolitan North Georgia Water Planning District's 2003 plans, the region would face a water deficit of 284 million gallons a day by 2030 without aggressive conservation measures and new lakes to store water. The potential shortfall is close to the amount used today by everyone in Gwinnett and Fulton counties and the city of Atlanta.

The option is to spend more than $60 billion over the next 30 years to pay for water and sewer improvements and ongoing maintenance, according to the district. But progress so far is hit or miss in the district, which comprises 16 counties and hundreds of communities.

Two reservoirs are under construction, and five more are in the works while other, more basic water-wise polices have hit stumbling blocks. Most local governments are reluctant to impose stormwater fees on property owners to pay for systems to handle urban runoff and reduce water pollution. And some have been unwilling to charge a sliding fee for water that penalizes wasters.

Last year, the real estate industry scuttled the district's No. 1 conservation measure, which was to require home sellers to update their plumbing fixtures to meet today's low-flow standards. All the talking and planning have so far yielded few long-lasting results.

But here's the worst part: Even with all the well-laid plans about how to maximize the water from our rivers and streams, no one knows how much can safely be taken out.

The watersheds contain only so much water that can be used for drinking, cooking, flushing, showering and sprinkling lawns. The rest must stay in the rivers to keep them and their aquatic species healthy. Site-specific, scientific research that includes monitoring stream flows and surveying aquatic species hasn't been done.

Only the water rivers can spare during severe droughts can be guaranteed, according to Mark Crisp, a water expert who has studied the Chattahoochee River for more than 20 years. Counting on more water than that would be "like designing the structural steel of the building to withstand just a windstorm of 60 miles per hour, knowing full well we've had hurricane winds of 100 miles per hour."

What's particularly interesting, to me at least, is the date on the article. June 17, 2005. Atlanta's population increased from 4.1 million in the 2000 census, to 5.2 million in this latest estimate. And they're still not taking water supply as seriously as they need to.

So far, the lower cost of living in the Southeast continues to attract residents from other parts of the country. What happens when shortages of critical resources like water eliminate that lower cost of living?