Transfer tax redux
I had a couple of additional thoughts to make about the transfer tax, and the, well, silliness for lack of a better word, of the Realtors position that the option not be placed on the ballot this November.
If you were at the meeting last night, or if you read Michael's dissection of the Rick Martinez propaganda column in the N&O (the Martinez piece. Michael's response is at his place), you've heard the number 77%.
That's the percentage of North Carolinians that the Realtors say are opposed to the transfer tax.
Gary, who's making an effort to rebrand Realtors as "property salespeople," an effort i'm considering joining, by the way, argues that he believes given a choice between the sales tax, the transfer tax, and larger increases in the property tax, that most voters would vote for the transfer tax.
That's probably the best conclusion one can draw from the efforts to keep the transfer tax off the ballot.
But here's a thought. Let's say that the Realtors convince the Commissioners to only put the sales tax on the ballot, and it gets defeated by a 55 - 45 or greater margin. I guarantee the transfer tax will be on the ballot in a special election within 90 days. (If a measure is defeated it can be brought back up in a special election after a 30 day waiting period.) But if the transfer tax is on the ballot, and it's resoundly defeated, as the Realtors would have you believe it's going to be, then it'll be gone. A 3 - 1 margin of defeat would drive a stake through the heart of the transfer tax, and you'll never see it again.
So, from a gaming perspective, you'd have to weigh up how confident you are in your polling. If you think that your 77% figure opposed is accurate, why wouldn't you want to put the transfer tax on the ballot?
The only answer, of course, is that 77% opposed is simply not applicable to Durham.
On the other hand, i was surprised to hear any arguments that the sales tax should not be on the ballot. Although i would expect both the People's Alliance and the Durham Committee to oppose the sales tax, again, i think there would be a reasonable degree of confidence that the sales tax increase would be defeated in Durham.
As i've been saying, i trust that the voters of Durham are smart enough to make the best choice.
UPDATE: Johnston County Commissioners have put both options on the ballot for their voters.
If you were at the meeting last night, or if you read Michael's dissection of the Rick Martinez propaganda column in the N&O (the Martinez piece. Michael's response is at his place), you've heard the number 77%.
That's the percentage of North Carolinians that the Realtors say are opposed to the transfer tax.
Gary, who's making an effort to rebrand Realtors as "property salespeople," an effort i'm considering joining, by the way, argues that he believes given a choice between the sales tax, the transfer tax, and larger increases in the property tax, that most voters would vote for the transfer tax.
That's probably the best conclusion one can draw from the efforts to keep the transfer tax off the ballot.
But here's a thought. Let's say that the Realtors convince the Commissioners to only put the sales tax on the ballot, and it gets defeated by a 55 - 45 or greater margin. I guarantee the transfer tax will be on the ballot in a special election within 90 days. (If a measure is defeated it can be brought back up in a special election after a 30 day waiting period.) But if the transfer tax is on the ballot, and it's resoundly defeated, as the Realtors would have you believe it's going to be, then it'll be gone. A 3 - 1 margin of defeat would drive a stake through the heart of the transfer tax, and you'll never see it again.
So, from a gaming perspective, you'd have to weigh up how confident you are in your polling. If you think that your 77% figure opposed is accurate, why wouldn't you want to put the transfer tax on the ballot?
The only answer, of course, is that 77% opposed is simply not applicable to Durham.
On the other hand, i was surprised to hear any arguments that the sales tax should not be on the ballot. Although i would expect both the People's Alliance and the Durham Committee to oppose the sales tax, again, i think there would be a reasonable degree of confidence that the sales tax increase would be defeated in Durham.
As i've been saying, i trust that the voters of Durham are smart enough to make the best choice.
UPDATE: Johnston County Commissioners have put both options on the ballot for their voters.
Labels: Durham, local politics
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2 Comments:
We could use a better term than "Realtor™", which I believe is a term that industry created for marketing purposes.
"Real estate agent" is still fine with me. "Property salesperson" cuts to the chase and sounds less hoity-toity. But the "Realtor™" moniker is hard to live with at times.
By
Tony, at 9:00 PM
The 77% was a statewide poll. No doubt it was asked, "would you like to have to pay an extra tax on your property for no good reason whatsoever?"
As I said at the meeting, the real way this should be asked is this:
Which of the following would you prefer?
a) A property tax hike
b) A transfer tax hike
c) A sales tax hike
d) A 3-year moratorium on new development
By
Unknown, at 4:15 PM
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