here's the money quote, though:
By a 47-36 margin, people favor Democrats over Republicans when they are asked who should control Congress.
While the gap worries Republicans, it does not automatically translate into GOP defeats in November, when voters will face a choice between local candidates rather than considering Congress as a whole.
and that's because the Republicans are going to do a better job of running against George Bush than the Democrats. Just look at Joe Lieberman v Ned Lamont in the Connecticut primary.